Lead Actor

N/A- Willem Dafoe in “Eternity’s Gate”

Have not seen the movie, I’m pretty sure no one has seen this movie. It only made $6.7 million at the box office. Every year they nominate an actor in a movie no one has seen. Last year it was Denzel in Roman J. Israel.

4. Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Rami was great. He was maybe the only good part of this movie, which is genuinely a bad movie. I guess he deserves to be nominated, but I do not think he deserves to win. For one, the character is very undersold. If they had told the real story of Freddie Mercury, maybe he could have put up an Oscar-worthy performance. But as it is, there just isn’t enough in the script for him to really earn the win. Though if he does win, I hope he uses the speech to slam the abusive director of the movie. Fuck you Bryan Singer.

3. Viggo Mortensen in “Green Book”

I liked Viggo in this movie. Loved him even. But it is hard to really get into a performance in a movie I just do not care about. I just felt Green Book was pandering to me, like Driving Miss Daisy. So while Viggo was great, I just didnt care that much.

2. Bradley Cooper in “A Star is Born”

While his co-star gets most of the buzz for her breakthrough performance, I think Bradley was truly the star performer here. He had a lot more material to work with, with his character being more flawed. He also had to pull double duty and direct, which really shouldn’t factor into it, but it does make it more impressive.  But I think there was one person more impressive.

1. Christain Bale in “Vice”

I feel like this is deja vu’ from last year. Another well-respected actor, disappearing into a role where he plays a historical figure, in a movie that is underwhelming but still manages to knock it out of the park anyway. Just like Gary Oldman was amazing as Churchill in the ok movie The Darkest Hour, Bale was stellar when he played Satan himself in Vice. You would be hard-pressed to even recognize Bale when he plays Dick Chaney. That is both a credit to the makeup department, but also to Bale. His voice, his mannerisms, his cadence, and voice. Bale put everything into this role, and it resulted in brilliance. The movie is not that great, but Bale deserves this award just like Oldman did last year.

Snubbed

Ethan Hawke in “First Reformed”

Ethan was so great, and while I have not seen whatever Eternities Gate is, I feel confident saying Hawke deserved the nom over Dafoe for a role in a movie no one has seen. First Reformed did not break the bank, but people have at least seen this performance, and it was stellar. One of Hawkes best roles ever.

Who Should Win

Christain Bale

Who Will Win

Christain Bale

Lead Actress

N/A- Melissa McCarthy in “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Haven’t seen it, will not see it before the Oscars. Though I am confident in saying she has no chance of winning this. She has not won at any of the other Award shows, which is always a bad sign.

N/A- Glenn Close in “The Wife”

Feel bad that I haven’t seen two of the performances nominated in this category, but I haven’t. Did not really have a chance to see either of these movies, didn’t even know anything about them until the nominations came out. Though all the pre -Oscars buzz is about her, and she has had a long, stellar career, with no Oscars. I feel like there is a very strong chance she will win this. She won at the Golden Globes, SAGs, and Critic’s Choice Awards, making her a near lock to win here as well.

3. Lady Gaga in “A Star is Born”

Amazing breakthrough role, she will definitely get more big roles from here on, and she has little to no chance of winning. Not only because Glenn Close is a near lock, but because Gaga has lost at most of the other Award shows, only scoring one win in the form of a tie at the Critics Choice Awards. Not to say she wasn’t good, she was, she just isn’t going to win. She knocked the role out of the park. I mean it seems tailor-made for her, but she still sold it really well.

2. Yalitza Aparicio in “Roma”

I was pleasantly surprised Yalitza was nominated. This was her first role ever, and she was snubbed of a nomination by most of the other award shows, only scoring a couple among the critics choice awards. But she is totally deserving. Her role as Cleo was fantastic and extremely believable. It was a role that bucks trends in bother Mexican and American cinema. She will not win here, but we should be seeing a lot more of her because she is a genuine talent.

1. Olivia Coleman in “The Favourite”

This is my favorite performance of the year. And I know I keep doing that, calling things from The Favourite my favorite of the year but is just the truth. Olivia Coleman was fantastic here. In a movie with tons of amazing performances, she stands out the most. Her role as Queen Anne was mind-blowing, and I couldn’t take my eyes off the screen. While I loved it, I do not think it will score her the Oscar. Bigger upsets have happened, but as I have said, Glenn Close has too much going for her. All the prior wins, and the long career and multiple Oscar losses. Olivia Coleman will get more chances to win. I can’t be sure if Olivia was better than Glenn since again, I have not seen Glenn’s performance, but I am still confident she will lose to Glenn.

Snubbed

Toni Collette in “Hereditary”

The Academy just does not give horror movies proper respect. Toni was amazing here and deserved a nom.

Who Should Win

Olivia Coleman in “The Favourite”

Who Will Win

Glenn Close in “The Wife”